Why these four matter
Financial markets price every asset as a discount on the future macro environment. Understanding these four is enough to build an intuition on rates, inflation and growth.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- YoY (%) reflects inflation vs a year ago. CPI > 3% is usually considered elevated; CPI < 0 signals deflation.
- MoM (%) reflects month-over-month change.
- Core CPI (ex food and energy) tracks the trend better.
PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
- Published monthly by NBS. 50% is the boom-bust line.
- > 50: manufacturing expanding. < 50: contracting.
- Sub-indices: manufacturing PMI, services PMI, composite PMI.
GDP
- YoY (%) shows nominal or real growth; this tool shows YoY.
- Released quarterly with a 2-3 month lag.
LPR (Loan Prime Rate)
- Published on the 20th of each month by the PBoC-authorized NIFC.
- 1Y LPR: short-term loan and consumer credit.
- 5Y+ LPR: mortgages and corporate long-term loans — the key mortgage signal.
- The PBoC steers the LPR via the MLF rate to control real-economy funding cost.
Data notes
Data from Eastmoney and NBS public interfaces; series follow official raw disclosure, not seasonally adjusted.